2005 Analysis of Mayoral Race
Tomás Rivera Policy Institute researchers downloaded official precinct-by-precinct election results from the Los Angeles City Clerk website to analyze voting patterns in heavily Latino, African American and White voting precincts. Using population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, TRPI identified the top 100 heavily Latino, Black, and White precincts in Los Angeles and reported vote totals for each precinct.
Table 1 sorts the top 100 Latino precincts in Los Angeles and lists the voter turnout rate and votes for each candidate. Two trends are noticeable for the Latino precincts. First, Villaraigosa won an overwhelming percentage of the vote in heavily Latino precincts. Among the top 50 Latino precincts, with a voting age population that is 88% Latino or higher, Villaraigosa won more than 80% of the vote in 45 of 50 precincts. In many Latino precincts he won more than 90% of the vote. Second, precinct voter turnout was considerably higher in Latino precincts than for the city as a whole. Citywide, Election Day voter turnout was 22% among registered voters while absentee voting accounted for an additional 8% turnout. In 48 of the 50 top Latino precincts, precinct voter turnout was greater than 22% suggesting Latinos voted at higher rates.
Also of interest is voting patterns in heavily African American precincts, found in Table 2. In 2001 Villaraigosa won just 20% of the Black vote. However in 2005, he won around 50% of the Black vote as demonstrated by the top 100 Black precincts. Support for Villaraigosa ranged between 40 - 70% in Black precincts.
